The transmission chain for Australian fuel prices:

Global crude → Asian refined benchmark → AUD/USD → Terminal gate price → Retail bowser price

The ACCC confirms that the biggest drivers of Australian fuel prices are international benchmark refined fuel prices and the AUD/USD exchange rate. For petrol, the benchmark is Singapore Mogas 95. For diesel, it's Singapore Gasoil 10 ppm.

Terminal gate prices (TGP) are the indicative wholesale prices posted by BP, Ampol, Viva Energy, and Mobil — they reflect what retailers pay before their own margin. When TGP rises but retail hasn't caught up, a bowser price increase is likely.

Brent crude is upstream context, not the direct driver. A crude spike is an early warning, but what matters for Australia is whether it pushes up the Singapore refined benchmarks, weakens the AUD, and flows into terminal gate prices.

Import cost proxy converts Brent from USD/barrel to AUD cents/litre — a rough approximation of what it costs to land fuel in Australia. The real figure comes from Singapore Mogas/Gasoil (Phase 3).

Sources: ACCC Petrol Monitoring Reports, AIP International Market Watch, RBA Exchange Rates, EIA Petroleum Data.